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Sunday Aug 16 Pine Valley forecast

Started by karlos, August 10, 2015, 08:29:41 AM

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karlos

Sunday riders looking forward to Kitchen Creek, Sunrise Hwy, Engineers...
The forecast for next Sunday looks to be for a high about 90 deg at 1pm - 80 deg at 9am start. We have encountered cold / windy weather out there before, but this is the opposite problem. Question is: is this doable? We could switch with Aug 23 as it looks like there is a downward trend the following week, but I can't guarantee anything weather-wise.

Post your thoughts here and we can adjust as late as Thursday. I know people have been planning for this ride, so I hate to upset personal schedules.

Karl

karlos

After checking around the reputable weather services, this is what the National Weather Service (NOAA) says for Sunday:

  • Julian - high 87
  • Pine Valley - high 89
  • Mt Laguna - high 81
If the forecast for Pine Valley, Julian, Mt Laguna stays similar to that, the Sunday ride will continue. That's warm but nothing compared to the 105 degrees when we started climbing Montezuma once upon a time. San Diegans shouldn't freak out when the temps get outside our narrow 65-80 degree comfort zone - we're lucky to be so spoiled. One of our riders reported the highs for next Sunday at 100 degrees, which would be a cause for alarm. Let's stay on top of the forecasts and not panic unless things really change.

Karl

Maybe we can bribe someone to Sag for us?

karlos

We can still stop at the Mt Laguna store after Kitchen Creek, several places in Julian and the Lake Cuyamaca store. I think that is plenty of opportunity to stay hydrated. Of course, anyone who wants to sag for the heck of it is welcome. I will buy them burger, fries, milk shake for after-ride eating, which is always the carrot on the stick for this ride anyway.
Karl

karlos

Current Sunday forecast from National Weather Service (NOAA):

  • Julian - high 91
  • Pine Valley - high 94 at noon, 82 at start
  • Mt Laguna - high 84
This is a few degrees warmer, but not in the danger zone to me. The hottest part of the ride will probably be into Julian. It should be comfortable on Kitchen Creek and Sunrise in the a.m. The shade and breezes from the west are always welcome on Engineers Rd. The majority of the people I've spoken personally to would like to ride this Sunday. I'll check one more time tomorrow and make a final decision about rescheduling one of our favorite rides.

karlos

Thurs afternoon update: Sunday forecast from National Weather Service (NOAA):

  • Julian - high 94 at noon
  • Pine Valley - high 94 at noon, 88 at start
  • Mt Laguna - high 83
So, it's a bit cooler at the high point, but hotter down below. Also, heat advisory warnings are in effect, so I think that avoiding the heat this weekend may not result in our being "wimpy, spoiled San Diegans."

Switching this ride with the Aug 23 or Aug 30 ride makes even less sense because this Sunday's forecast in San Marcos and Fallbrook is 96 degrees. In that respect, the planned Pine Valley ride is the coolest of the next 3 Sunday routes.

I'm thinking that the only good option for this weekend is a "Coastal Race Track". Start at Palomar Airport and Yarrow at 8:30 a.m., head up 101. Either go through the base (bring ID), or turn around at some point and head down toward La Jolla Shores. I will let the group decide on the endpoints. This is one my least favorite (most boring) routes and we've never really done it this way, but I don't want anyone to suffer from the heat.

If we go for the Coastal Race Track, we can just schedule Pine Valley for either Aug 23 (cooling trend expected) or Aug 30.

Thoughts? I will make a decision by the time we go to bed tonight, post also on the website and send an email to the unofficial Sunday Ride mail group.

Karl

Karl,
Thanks for putting so much thought and research into the temps for Sunday's ride.  I wouldn't mind putting it off until next Sunday.  Selfishly, I would rather have the 23rd since I will be gone on the 30th.  If we end up doing the "Coastal Ride" this Sunday, La Jolla Shores and climbing Soledad a couple of times would be my preference.  But whatever the majority of the group would like is how we should go.
Ursula


YES DEFINITELY RESCHEDULE.
I don't like doing Mt Soledad idurng the summer with lots of traffic 
But whatever

karlos

By popular demand, we will be riding the coast this Sunday. Meet at Palomar Airport at 8:30 and the majority of the group will decide what to do. If you plan to meet on the coast, text me at 858-481-7910 before 8:25 and I'll text you back with a rough idea where we're heading so you can intercept us.

I have posted the change on the Roadies page and shifted the remaining rides forward one week. Pine Valley on Aug 23, fingers crossed!
Karl

There's a 30% chance of rain there on Saturday.  I think that means that Nigel is required to ride out there once it starts coming down...   ;)

I think we all are going to be experts this year with the talk about the Godzilla El Nino    :o